Сборник II научно-практической международной студенческой конференции Narxoz Student Research-2021
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« Экономика » Conclusion In the experimental part of this research, we built the regression model that takes the annual working population as the outcome variable. By taking the data for the last 20 years and using seven parameters, we empirically identifi ed that only fi ve of them explain the response variable with a high level of confi dence. These factors are foreign investments, monthly salary, net migration of population, retail trade and the export trade. Since our model consists of fi ve control variables, we used specifi c assumptions that are incorporated in three growth-scenarios: moderate, standard and optimistic. It was found that depending on the scenario, the employed population in Kazakhstan should gain 0.7 to 1.0 million people by 2030, and from 0.4 to 0.6 million by 2025 respectively. These results imply that the offi cial estimations made by the government offi cials conform to the optimistic scenario of our projections. Since the various factors infl uence the growth of employment within a country, we believe that their close correlation is natural and unproblematic, as the forecast model avoids typical multicollinearity issues. Because the shaping of labor resources can depend on many interlinked factors and is also infl uenced by the global economic events, it is important to investigate the changes and novelties on the labor market in Kazakhstan on the timely basis, as understanding the specifi cs of the employment helps to implement more eff ective economic policies. References 1. Aimurzina, B., & Sadvakasova, K. (2015). Rynok truda kak obyekt prognozirovaniya: Zarubezhnyy opyt i vozmozhnosti yego primeneniya v Kazakhstane [Labor Market As A Subject For Forecasting: Foreign Experience And Its Application In Kazakhstan]. Contemporary Challenges of Economics, 5, 444–453. 2. BNCRK. (2020, February 4). Dinamika osnovnykh sotsial’no- ekonomicheskikh pokazateley [Dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators]. Bureau for National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. https://stat.gov.kz/o ffi cial/dynamic 3. Dolgy, V., & Ivanova, N. (2016). Osobennosti formirovaniya trudovykh resursov Respubliki Kazakhstan na sovremennom etape [Features of the formation of labor resources in Kazakhstan at the present stage]. Bulletin of the Saratov State Social and Economic University, 1 (60), Article 1 (60). |